WORLD CUP
2026

Expected goals, or xG, is a number that tells you how likely a shot was to go in. A tap-in from two yards might score 0.85 xG, meaning it goes in about 85 percent of the time. A wild shot from 35 yards might score 0.02 xG. Analysts built xG by studying thousands of past shots. They look at distance, angle, body part, pressure from defenders, and whether it was a header or volley. World Cup broadcasters now flash xG on screen during matches. Fans see a team dominate with 2.4 xG but lose 1-0 and understand the result was cruel, not fair. Coaches use xG to judge strikers who miss chances but keep getting into good spots. A forward with low goals but high xG is often unlucky, not bad. National teams employ data scientists who update xG models after every training game. The number does not replace the thrill of a goal, but it adds a layer of truth beneath the scoreline.